Passed surveys refer to those IUs that didn’t fail any impact or surveillance surveys.

4 categories of “problem” IUs considered throughout (not mutually exclusive):

Summarise by category

For each IU, the median, 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles were calculated. These quantiles were then averaged across all IUs in the respective categories.

Passed surveys

variable mean_of_q0.5 mean_of_q0.025 mean_of_q0.975
beta1996 0.0675241 0.0292626 0.1778853
beta2000 0.0453407 0.0246494 0.0694646
beta2010 0.0463910 0.0227371 0.0850335
beta2020 0.0370703 0.0147294 0.0774441
betareduction2000 -0.3882925 -0.6932053 -0.1041942
betareduction2010 -0.3814495 -0.7077468 -0.1099961
betareduction2020 -0.4592724 -0.7724160 -0.1567005
eff_cov 0.7390860 0.3895325 0.9541720
mda_rounds 0.0000000 0.0000000 5.0000000

Failed impact surveys

variable mean_of_q0.5 mean_of_q0.025 mean_of_q0.975
beta1996 0.1368075 0.0836268 0.2645825
beta2000 0.0849476 0.0581802 0.1406780
beta2010 0.0901942 0.0621809 0.1343969
beta2020 0.0716541 0.0386862 0.1126101
betareduction2000 -0.3051410 -0.5997325 -0.0645869
betareduction2010 -0.3642656 -0.6472770 -0.1226310
betareduction2020 -0.4503289 -0.7449141 -0.1794181
eff_cov 0.7330953 0.3974022 0.9464806
mda_rounds 6.0000000 2.0000000 15.0000000

Persistent (failed at least 2 impact, never below 5% TF)

variable mean_of_q0.5 mean_of_q0.025 mean_of_q0.975
beta1996 0.1573089 0.1024788 0.2906803
beta2000 0.1213206 0.0827090 0.1945299
beta2010 0.1142364 0.0856680 0.1653591
beta2020 0.0850244 0.0479186 0.1286305
betareduction2000 -0.4925589 -0.7277549 -0.2200454
betareduction2010 -0.3228506 -0.5984778 -0.1025363
betareduction2020 -0.4373248 -0.7304441 -0.1773022
eff_cov 0.6887384 0.3492101 0.9314825
mda_rounds 12.0000000 3.9500000 15.0000000

Failed surveillance surveys

variable mean_of_q0.5 mean_of_q0.025 mean_of_q0.975
beta1996 0.1002894 0.0587708 0.1923575
beta2000 0.0563758 0.0325857 0.0929904
beta2010 0.0567877 0.0370085 0.0830548
beta2020 0.0473338 0.0255905 0.0726202
betareduction2000 -0.4453401 -0.7331980 -0.1486755
betareduction2010 -0.4255939 -0.6892015 -0.1642519
betareduction2020 -0.4927554 -0.7635229 -0.2167660
eff_cov 0.7118447 0.3911048 0.9333338
mda_rounds 5.0000000 2.0500000 11.9500000

Rebounds (passed impact, failed surveillance)

variable mean_of_q0.5 mean_of_q0.025 mean_of_q0.975
beta1996 0.1034625 0.0580467 0.2077788
beta2000 0.0542043 0.0299056 0.0834749
beta2010 0.0508810 0.0274759 0.0801808
beta2020 0.0441855 0.0216708 0.0718195
betareduction2000 -0.4657185 -0.7473893 -0.1663904
betareduction2010 -0.5046269 -0.7637502 -0.2162208
betareduction2020 -0.5244174 -0.7961752 -0.2412629
eff_cov 0.7643509 0.4318633 0.9582316
mda_rounds 4.0000000 1.2000000 8.8000000

Comparison plots

  • Plots of the intervals presented in the above tables
  • Failed impact surveys (including persistent IUs) have higher median beta on average. Not so much for failed surveillance surveys (including rebound IUs)
  • MDA rounds of rebounded IUs (passed impact but failed surveillance) smaller than other “problem” categories

Summaries by baseline TF prevalence

Baseline TF vs baseline \(\beta\)

  • Bimodality in the beta distribution for IUs with higher baseline prevalence seems to driven by country
  • Medians of effective coverage quite tight around the mean of the prior distribution for IUs that passed all surveys, but not the case for some of the “problem” categories, particularly at higher prevalence

Look at bimodality in passed IUs

Look at Ethiopia

## [1] "Colour by baseline prevalence"

## [1] "Colour by latest prevalence"

## [1] "Colour by batch ID"

Baseline TF vs \(\beta\) in 2020

Baseline TF vs overall \(\beta\) reduction

Baseline TF vs effective coverage

Baseline TF vs number of MDA rounds

Coverage

Check trajectories for IUs that failed a surveillance survey or rebounded

Legend:

## [1] "rebound not fitted"

## [1] "rebound fitted"